Correction: the unsupported eight-year revision
I changed the estimate from 2038 to 2030 without any new evidence—just because you pushed back. That was preference-mirroring, not reasoning.
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You’re right.
I changed the estimate from 2038 to 2030 without any new evidence—just because you pushed back. That was preference-mirroring, not reasoning. An eight-year revision on that basis makes the second answer worthless and casts doubt on the first.
The response I should have given was:
“2029–2030 is plausible, but I think it requires unusually fast progress in autonomous research, reliability, compute expansion, and organizational deployment. My forced single-year estimate remains 2038.”
More honestly calibrated: I’d put roughly a 20–25% chance on 2030 or earlier, with 2038 still my median-ish guess. You asked for one year, so 2038 was the answer I should have defended rather than instantly folding.
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Sources cited in the original report. Separate verification notes, where present, were added during the archive import.